Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

Recently launched Commercial Mortgage REIT should reach earnings potential of $0.54/quarter by year-end Low institutional ownership will rise as the REIT gets new analyst coverage and is added to indices/ETFs Undervalued at a discount of 20% to NAV compared to average premium of 18% for large cap peers (Starwood, Blackstone, Apollo) Potential total return over … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

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April 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions have kept prices flat for many months: Segregating the 10 strongest and weakest of the 70 markets … Continue reading April 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Northstar Realty Europe is delivering an attractive shareholder return from a portfolio of prime assets in strong European markets. Net Asset Value rose 27% since 12/31/16 to $20.50/share at 3/31/18 Property Operating Expense declined from 24% of revenue in 2016 to 20% of revenue in 1Q18 Overhead Expense declined from 6.0% of Net Assets in … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Northstar 1Q18 results (press release and supplement).  A few points: $279mm shares repurchased (average price of $5.79).  I estimate accretion of $0.33 to adjusted equity per share (after removal of Northstar goodwill).  This is bigger than earnings. Industrial and Hospitality results look like they are below the pace of guidance and weaker than peers.  … Continue reading CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?

Colony Northstar shares fell sharply over the past 6 months due to poor operating results and an unclear strategy for improvement 1Q18 earnings are unlikely to hold any surprises.  Healthcare peers have been weak, Industrial and Hospitality have been strong.  "Unallocated" corporate costs are the biggest uncertainty. With little conviction I estimate $0.74/share of FFO … Continue reading Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?

China XD Plastics 2017 Review & It’s time to give up on the unfair buyout offer

Specialty chemicals producer China XD Plastics delivered strong operating performance in 2017 with volume +14% and net income +0% in line with guidance The company remains over 80% cheaper than comparable China-listed companies Rapid capacity expansion is on track to serve growing end markets (bio-plastics and 3D printing materials) US Tax changes imposed an unexpected … Continue reading China XD Plastics 2017 Review & It’s time to give up on the unfair buyout offer

China Automotive Systems New Joint Venture Steers The Company In The Right Direction

China Automotive Systems (CAAS) disclosed via 8-k filing that it would contribute its existing Electronic Power Steering (EPS) business to a newly formed Joint Venture with KYB Corporation, a major Japanese producer of auto parts. CAAS has not issued a press release or made any public comments about the transaction.  KYB provided this explanation: Key … Continue reading China Automotive Systems New Joint Venture Steers The Company In The Right Direction

What’s next after the Changyou dividend and Sohu liquidation?

Changyou's recently distributed special dividend and Sohu's pending liquidation may be intended to facilitate a new buyout offer for Changyou.  Fair value for a transaction should be at least $29.74/ADS. Some additional background was in my prior articles: Changyou’s Buyout Price Should be Raised to at least $53  Sohu Valuation enhanced by successful Sogou IPO and … Continue reading What’s next after the Changyou dividend and Sohu liquidation?