March 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The prior segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report has been removed and suggests that price restraints have diminished in importance as a policy goal.  It is still useful to monitor trends in these major markets. Intense market restrictions … Continue reading March 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Advertisements

Sohu 20-F Reveals $144mm Tax Benefit

Sohu's 20-F revealed that the company no longer believes it will owe any special one-time tax in connection with the 2017 US Tax Reform.  If correct then this will free up $144mm of cash (about $3.69/ADS) for general corporate purposes. Investors in Changyou and Sohu are frustrated by the lack of information about the status … Continue reading Sohu 20-F Reveals $144mm Tax Benefit

February 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The prior segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report has been removed and suggests that price restraints have diminished in importance as a policy goal.  It is still useful to monitor trends in these major markets. Intense market restrictions … Continue reading February 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Artis REIT: Building Value That Will Eventually be Unlocked

Artis 3/15 unit price is a 31% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.55 per share Artis trades at 8X 2019 FFO, well below the 14X average for Canadian REITs and 19X average for US REITs The strategic initiatives announced in November 2018 have been aggressively implemented Shares may not trade at fair value … Continue reading Artis REIT: Building Value That Will Eventually be Unlocked

Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2018 GAAP loss of $168mm (-$1.41/share) and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $86mm ($0.70/share) Share price has fallen to a wide 28% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium of 19% Management commentary has been consistently overoptimistic Get it right or get out.  If returns don't improve … Continue reading Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

January 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The prior segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report has been removed and suggests that price restraints have diminished in importance as a policy goal.  It is still useful to monitor trends in these major markets. Intense market restrictions … Continue reading January 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Earnings Preview

Guidance is for record high 4Q18 contract sales of US$1,158mm and EPS of about $1/ADS Property Management business is poised for rapid growth "Technology Town" developments could enhance the company's long-term growth and margins Leverage must decrease - XIN bonds are yielding 20% and US$296mm must be repaid/refinanced in August 2019 Land acquisitions may have … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Earnings Preview

December 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has recently been boosted  … Continue reading December 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 2018 sales data for the country’s top 200 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #82 with estimated full year sales of 29.51Bn RMB which implies 8.01Bn RMB in 4Q18. CRIC does not have access to any official company records and … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

The company remains under-owned and undervalued (31% discount to BVPS compared to average premium of 8% for large cap peers) Earnings expected to cover dividend rate by 2H19 Portfolio return currently below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage Colony Credit Real Estate (CLNC) 3Q results … Continue reading Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation