Artis REIT: Safe and Cheap

Artis units have fallen sharply since my 3/5 article (Artis REIT: Liquidation Sale?).  A financial market crash and an economic recession make it unlikely that the company or significant parts of it can be sold in the near-term, but the strategic initiatives executed over the past year leave Artis well positioned to weather the storm and … Continue reading Artis REIT: Safe and Cheap

Ladder Capital: Well Positioned For A Distressed Market

Ladder is a commercial mortgage REIT with a diversified portfolio designed to preserve capital and flexibility to take advantage of period market disruptions.  A few weeks ago CEO Brian Harris said (4Q19 conference call transcript): Having just raised $750 million a few weeks ago, we have plenty of dry powder and we were deploying it … Continue reading Ladder Capital: Well Positioned For A Distressed Market

Colony Credit: Hoping the End Is Near

Colony Credit reported non-disastrous 4Q19 results with $0.37 Core EPS and undepreciated book value of $17.81/share Colony Capital announced that it intends to sell its agreement to manage Colony Credit Colony Credit hired brokers to sell The Row NYC Hotel CEO Kevin Traenkle resigned 4Q19 results (press release and conference call) came with no major … Continue reading Colony Credit: Hoping the End Is Near

Artis REIT: Liquidation Sale?

Artis 3/3 unit price is a 16% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.56/unit Artis trades at 8X 2020 FFO, well below the 15X average for all Canadian REITs The strategic initiatives announced in November 2018 have been aggressively implemented and the benefits are fully reflected in the unit price The share price now … Continue reading Artis REIT: Liquidation Sale?

Recent Bond Issues Make Chinese Property Stocks Look Cheap

A range of Chinese property developers have been able to issue US dollar bonds in recent weeks at reasonable yields and with longer maturities than were previously possible.  The longer duration reduces liquidity risk and should support higher equity valuations. Shares of Yuzhou, Logan, and KWG appear especially attractive relative to their bonds.  Assets of … Continue reading Recent Bond Issues Make Chinese Property Stocks Look Cheap

5 Demands, Not 1 Less: A Letter To The Independent Directors Of Colony Credit Real Estate

Copied below is the text of my letter to the independent directors of Colony Credit Real Estate.  It advocates for the directors and the corporation to take certain actions.  The text is not intended as investment research. The text expresses my opinions based on publicly available facts, but my opinions are not themselves facts.  For … Continue reading 5 Demands, Not 1 Less: A Letter To The Independent Directors Of Colony Credit Real Estate

Artis REIT: Good Results, But Appreciation Depends On New Strategic Initiatives

Artis 11/6 unit price is a 26% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.72/unit Artis trades at 8.6 X 2019 FFO, well below the 17X average for all Canadian REITs and 16X average for all US REITs The strategic initiatives announced in November 2018 have been aggressively implemented and the benefits are reflected in … Continue reading Artis REIT: Good Results, But Appreciation Depends On New Strategic Initiatives

Changyou Will Deliver Strong Results For Sohu In 2020

Sohu offered $10/ADS to buy out the 33% public stake in its Changyou gaming business Release of a new mobile game from its hit TLBB series could boost Changyou's 2020 earnings to $150mm (about $3/ADS) Sohu should report a substantial 2020 profit after 8 years of losses.  Changyou will be strong, Sogou will continue to … Continue reading Changyou Will Deliver Strong Results For Sohu In 2020

Phoenix New Media: Another Change to Yidian Sale, But Minimal Valuation Impact

Phoenix New Media (FENG) announced that a Yidian shareholder is seeking to exercise co-sale rights in FENG's pending transaction.  FENG disputes whether the co-sale notice was validly submitted, but Phoenix TV (PTV) is going ahead with a shareholder meeting seeking approval of the revised sale agreement.  The EGM Notice includes background information which was not included in … Continue reading Phoenix New Media: Another Change to Yidian Sale, But Minimal Valuation Impact

Xinyuan Real Estate: Very High Risk

Xinyuan has $999mm of US$ debt due in the next 24 months. Xinyuan bonds are trading at yields over 20%.   Refinancing is currently impossible. Contract sales have been weak and the company is losing market share. The company has too many unproductive assets. The New York projects may bring more problems The dividend should be … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate: Very High Risk