Xinyuan 3Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 9M18 sales data for the country’s top 100 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #76 with estimated sales of 21.50Bn RMB year-to-date which implies 8.16Bn RMB in 3Q18. CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles … Continue reading Xinyuan 3Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

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Three China Real Estate Bargains

China real estate developers have fallen far from their 52-week highs (LINK). Home prices in some major cities closely monitored by the government have begun rising and suggest an informal relaxation of housing market restrictions (LINK). Looser fiscal and monetary policy is boosting domestic consumption to offset the economic and psychological impact of US trade … Continue reading Three China Real Estate Bargains

August 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has been boosted  by … Continue reading August 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China Real Estate Companies are Cheap

The bear came back with a gift of cheap equities.  After rising 102% in 2017 the MSCI China Real Estate index fell 5.6% in 8M18.  The largest 43 China real estate companies traded in Hong Kong (plus Xinyuan in NY) are down an average of 38% from one year highs and trading at 5.7 times … Continue reading China Real Estate Companies are Cheap

Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Target level of leverage and earnings now expected in 2H19 Asset level performance is satisfactory with unlevered yields in line with expectations Portfolio return below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage The company remains under-owned (held by only 6 ETFs) and undervalued (12% discount to … Continue reading Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Net Asset Value rose 32% since 12/31/16 to $20.95/share at 6/30/18 Property Operating Expense declined from 24% of revenue in 2016 to 21% of revenue in 1H18 Overhead Expense declined from 6.0% of Net Assets in 2016 to 3.4% of Net Assets in 1H18 Discount to NAV of 37% for NRE compared to an average … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Xinyuan Science & Technology Service (NEEQ:870929) Outstanding 1H18 Results

Xinyuan Science & Technology Service (XSTS), the property management subsidiary of Xinyuan Real Estate, filed its 1H18 Report (LINK).  Even though XSTS shares are not yet trading publicly, the NEEQ listing provides visibility into the rapid growth of Xinyuan’s recurring revenues and income from this business.  Highlights: The company’s NEEQ listing was approved on 3/15/17 … Continue reading Xinyuan Science & Technology Service (NEEQ:870929) Outstanding 1H18 Results

China XD Plastics 1H Review & The New Deal is Worse Than The Old Deal

Specialty chemicals producer China XD Plastics delivered strong 1H18 operating results with volume +11% and net income +14% The company remains over 80% cheaper than China-listed peers Liquidity is adequate, but it would be prudent to raise equity at a reasonable price to support growth plans The proposed issuance of shares in the Chinese operating … Continue reading China XD Plastics 1H Review & The New Deal is Worse Than The Old Deal

July 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has been boosted  by … Continue reading July 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Colony Capital Bottom Seekers – How Big Is The Cushion?

Colony Capital has fallen 62% since the January 2017 Northstar merger The stock trades at 8 times forecast 2018 FFO, one of the lowest multiples in the sector Management has made slow progress at simplifying the business Tangible assets are worth about $0.3Bn less than carrying value, Healthcare overvaluation partially offset by Industrial and Hotels … Continue reading Colony Capital Bottom Seekers – How Big Is The Cushion?