A range of Chinese property developers have been able to issue US dollar bonds in recent weeks at reasonable yields and with longer maturities than were previously possible. The longer duration reduces liquidity risk and should support higher equity valuations. Shares of Yuzhou, Logan, and KWG appear especially attractive relative to their bonds. Assets of … Continue reading Recent Bond Issues Make Chinese Property Stocks Look Cheap
5 Demands, Not 1 Less: A Letter To The Independent Directors Of Colony Credit Real Estate
Copied below is the text of my letter to the independent directors of Colony Credit Real Estate. It advocates for the directors and the corporation to take certain actions. The text is not intended as investment research. The text expresses my opinions based on publicly available facts, but my opinions are not themselves facts. For … Continue reading 5 Demands, Not 1 Less: A Letter To The Independent Directors Of Colony Credit Real Estate
Artis REIT: Good Results, But Appreciation Depends On New Strategic Initiatives
Artis 11/6 unit price is a 26% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.72/unit Artis trades at 8.6 X 2019 FFO, well below the 17X average for all Canadian REITs and 16X average for all US REITs The strategic initiatives announced in November 2018 have been aggressively implemented and the benefits are reflected in … Continue reading Artis REIT: Good Results, But Appreciation Depends On New Strategic Initiatives
Changyou Will Deliver Strong Results For Sohu In 2020
Sohu offered $10/ADS to buy out the 33% public stake in its Changyou gaming business Release of a new mobile game from its hit TLBB series could boost Changyou's 2020 earnings to $150mm (about $3/ADS) Sohu should report a substantial 2020 profit after 8 years of losses. Changyou will be strong, Sogou will continue to … Continue reading Changyou Will Deliver Strong Results For Sohu In 2020
Phoenix New Media: Another Change to Yidian Sale, But Minimal Valuation Impact
Phoenix New Media (FENG) announced that a Yidian shareholder is seeking to exercise co-sale rights in FENG's pending transaction. FENG disputes whether the co-sale notice was validly submitted, but Phoenix TV (PTV) is going ahead with a shareholder meeting seeking approval of the revised sale agreement. The EGM Notice includes background information which was not included in … Continue reading Phoenix New Media: Another Change to Yidian Sale, But Minimal Valuation Impact
Xinyuan Real Estate: Very High Risk
Xinyuan has $999mm of US$ debt due in the next 24 months. Xinyuan bonds are trading at yields over 20%. Refinancing is currently impossible. Contract sales have been weak and the company is losing market share. The company has too many unproductive assets. The New York projects may bring more problems The dividend should be … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate: Very High Risk
Colony Capital Investor Presentation Key Points
Colony Capital participated in the BAML 2019 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE CONFERENCE on 9/11/19. Any potential CLNY investor should listen to incoming CEO Marc Ganzi's vision for the future of the company. Management comments went far beyond the contents of the PDF investor presentation. Paraphrasing key points: Chairman Tom Barrack began by explaining that Northstar was "a … Continue reading Colony Capital Investor Presentation Key Points
Colony Credit On Death Row
Note: Seeking Alpha declined to publish this article in this form because the editor thought it was too provocative. Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2Q19 GAAP loss of -$111mm and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $36mm ($0.28/share) Share price is at a wide 38% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium … Continue reading Colony Credit On Death Row
Phoenix New Media Reported 2Q19 Results And Raised Dividend Guidance
Phoenix New Media reported 2Q19 results (Press Release, Conference call transcript). Highlights: $200mm Payments for Step1 of the amended Yidian sale agreement have been received (Koneko comments on the amended agreement) Management confident in 20% revenue growth for FY19 and expects "at least 20% year-over-year revenue growth in the coming two to three years" Management … Continue reading Phoenix New Media Reported 2Q19 Results And Raised Dividend Guidance
Artis REIT: Strong Operating Results Overshadowed Strategic Initiatives
Artis 8/2 unit price is a 22% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.37/unit Artis trades at 8.8 X 2019 FFO, well below the 14X average for all Canadian REITs and 16X average for all US REITs The strategic initiatives announced in November 2018 have been aggressively implemented and an independent Special Committee is … Continue reading Artis REIT: Strong Operating Results Overshadowed Strategic Initiatives
