Phoenix New Media: Another Change to Yidian Sale, But Minimal Valuation Impact

Phoenix New Media (FENG) announced that a Yidian shareholder is seeking to exercise co-sale rights in FENG's pending transaction.  FENG disputes whether the co-sale notice was validly submitted, but Phoenix TV (PTV) is going ahead with a shareholder meeting seeking approval of the revised sale agreement.  The EGM Notice includes background information which was not included in … Continue reading Phoenix New Media: Another Change to Yidian Sale, But Minimal Valuation Impact

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Xinyuan Real Estate: Very High Risk

Xinyuan has $999mm of US$ debt due in the next 24 months. Xinyuan bonds are trading at yields over 20%.   Refinancing is currently impossible. Contract sales have been weak and the company is losing market share. The company has too many unproductive assets. The New York projects may bring more problems The dividend should be … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate: Very High Risk

Colony Capital Investor Presentation Key Points

Colony Capital participated in the BAML 2019 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE CONFERENCE on 9/11/19.  Any potential CLNY investor should listen to incoming CEO Marc Ganzi's vision for the future of the company.  Management comments went far beyond the contents of the PDF investor presentation.  Paraphrasing key points: Chairman Tom Barrack began by explaining that Northstar was "a … Continue reading Colony Capital Investor Presentation Key Points

Colony Credit On Death Row

Note: Seeking Alpha declined to publish this article in this form because the editor thought it was too provocative.   Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2Q19 GAAP loss of -$111mm and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $36mm ($0.28/share) Share price is at a wide 38% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium … Continue reading Colony Credit On Death Row

Phoenix New Media Reported 2Q19 Results And Raised Dividend Guidance

Phoenix New Media reported 2Q19 results (Press Release, Conference call transcript).  Highlights: $200mm Payments for Step1 of the amended Yidian sale agreement have been received (Koneko comments on the amended agreement) Management confident in 20% revenue growth for FY19 and expects "at least 20% year-over-year revenue growth in the coming two to three years" Management … Continue reading Phoenix New Media Reported 2Q19 Results And Raised Dividend Guidance

Artis REIT: Strong Operating Results Overshadowed Strategic Initiatives

Artis 8/2 unit price is a 22% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.37/unit Artis trades at 8.8 X 2019 FFO, well below the 14X average for all Canadian REITs and 16X average for all US REITs The strategic initiatives announced in November 2018 have been aggressively implemented and an independent Special Committee is … Continue reading Artis REIT: Strong Operating Results Overshadowed Strategic Initiatives

June 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The prior segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report has been removed and suggests that price restraints have diminished in importance as a policy goal.  It is still useful to monitor trends in these major markets. Intense market restrictions … Continue reading June 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Phoenix New Media: Yidian Sale Amendment (revised)

Note: this article was revised 7/25 to incorporate details from the amended sale agreement filed by Phoenix TV( LINK) Phoenix New Media (凤凰新媒体) announced that terms for the $448mm sale of its stake in news aggregator Yidian Zixun (一点资讯) have been amended (LINK).  Key terms: Sales proceeds of $448mm and estimated net proceeds of $409mm … Continue reading Phoenix New Media: Yidian Sale Amendment (revised)

Ossen Innovation: 59% of parent company earnings, but only 4% of parent market cap

Pujiang International, the 66% owner of specialty steel maker Ossen Innovation, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in May 2019 Ossen Innovation provides 59% of Pujiang's earnings and 56% of its net assets Pujiang has a market cap of US$362mm and is valued at 21 P/E and 1.7 P/B Ossen has a market cap … Continue reading Ossen Innovation: 59% of parent company earnings, but only 4% of parent market cap

Phoenix New Media: Yidian Sale Delay

Phoenix New Media announced that closing of its $448mm sale of 32% of Yidian Zixun has been delayed (LINK) "The Company sent a completion confirmation letter to Run Liang Tai on May 31, 2019 to confirm the satisfaction of all of the Closing Conditions. Run Liang Tai, however, disputed the satisfaction of certain Closing Conditions. The Company is in … Continue reading Phoenix New Media: Yidian Sale Delay