Colony Capital Investor Presentation Key Points

Colony Capital participated in the BAML 2019 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE CONFERENCE on 9/11/19.  Any potential CLNY investor should listen to incoming CEO Marc Ganzi's vision for the future of the company.  Management comments went far beyond the contents of the PDF investor presentation.  Paraphrasing key points: Chairman Tom Barrack began by explaining that Northstar was "a … Continue reading Colony Capital Investor Presentation Key Points

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Colony Credit On Death Row

Note: Seeking Alpha declined to publish this article in this form because the editor thought it was too provocative.   Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2Q19 GAAP loss of -$111mm and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $36mm ($0.28/share) Share price is at a wide 38% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium … Continue reading Colony Credit On Death Row

Colony Credit Disappointed the Skeptics For a Change

Key points from 1Q19 results (Press Release, Financial Supplement, and Conference Call): Undepreciated Book Value was $21.68 at 3/31/19.  BVPS fell by $0.13 from 12/31, but  the company generated a positive shareholder return with $0.425 of dividend payments. "Core Earnings" of $0.38/share included some small non-recurring benefits.  Management suggested the quarter-end earnings run rate was … Continue reading Colony Credit Disappointed the Skeptics For a Change

Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2018 GAAP loss of $168mm (-$1.41/share) and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $86mm ($0.70/share) Share price has fallen to a wide 28% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium of 19% Management commentary has been consistently overoptimistic Get it right or get out.  If returns don't improve … Continue reading Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

The company remains under-owned and undervalued (31% discount to BVPS compared to average premium of 8% for large cap peers) Earnings expected to cover dividend rate by 2H19 Portfolio return currently below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage Colony Credit Real Estate (CLNC) 3Q results … Continue reading Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Target level of leverage and earnings now expected in 2H19 Asset level performance is satisfactory with unlevered yields in line with expectations Portfolio return below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage The company remains under-owned (held by only 6 ETFs) and undervalued (12% discount to … Continue reading Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Colony Capital Bottom Seekers – How Big Is The Cushion?

Colony Capital has fallen 62% since the January 2017 Northstar merger The stock trades at 8 times forecast 2018 FFO, one of the lowest multiples in the sector Management has made slow progress at simplifying the business Tangible assets are worth about $0.3Bn less than carrying value, Healthcare overvaluation partially offset by Industrial and Hotels … Continue reading Colony Capital Bottom Seekers – How Big Is The Cushion?

Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

Recently launched Commercial Mortgage REIT should reach earnings potential of $0.54/quarter by year-end Low institutional ownership will rise as the REIT gets new analyst coverage and is added to indices/ETFs Undervalued at a discount of 20% to NAV compared to average premium of 18% for large cap peers (Starwood, Blackstone, Apollo) Potential total return over … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Northstar 1Q18 results (press release and supplement).  A few points: $279mm shares repurchased (average price of $5.79).  I estimate accretion of $0.33 to adjusted equity per share (after removal of Northstar goodwill).  This is bigger than earnings. Industrial and Hospitality results look like they are below the pace of guidance and weaker than peers.  … Continue reading CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?

Colony Northstar shares fell sharply over the past 6 months due to poor operating results and an unclear strategy for improvement 1Q18 earnings are unlikely to hold any surprises.  Healthcare peers have been weak, Industrial and Hospitality have been strong.  "Unallocated" corporate costs are the biggest uncertainty. With little conviction I estimate $0.74/share of FFO … Continue reading Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?