Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

Recently launched Commercial Mortgage REIT should reach earnings potential of $0.54/quarter by year-end Low institutional ownership will rise as the REIT gets new analyst coverage and is added to indices/ETFs Undervalued at a discount of 20% to NAV compared to average premium of 18% for large cap peers (Starwood, Blackstone, Apollo) Potential total return over … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

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CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Northstar 1Q18 results (press release and supplement).  A few points: $279mm shares repurchased (average price of $5.79).  I estimate accretion of $0.33 to adjusted equity per share (after removal of Northstar goodwill).  This is bigger than earnings. Industrial and Hospitality results look like they are below the pace of guidance and weaker than peers.  … Continue reading CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?

Colony Northstar shares fell sharply over the past 6 months due to poor operating results and an unclear strategy for improvement 1Q18 earnings are unlikely to hold any surprises.  Healthcare peers have been weak, Industrial and Hospitality have been strong.  "Unallocated" corporate costs are the biggest uncertainty. With little conviction I estimate $0.74/share of FFO … Continue reading Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?

Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate Might Not Be A Disaster

Several things could go right for Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate (CLNC) in coming months: Release of year-end results and conference call will provide an opportunity for the company to introduce itself to investors. $300mm share repurchase plan can begin after results are out.  At a price of $20/share, the plan could acquire over 18% … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate Might Not Be A Disaster

Colony Northstar Merger Math 2+2+2=3

The merger of Colony Capital, Northstar Realty, and Northstar Asset Management combined 3 companies with a market cap of about $2Bn into one company whose market cap has fallen to $3Bn. Operating performance has fallen far short of expectations and far short of the partners premerger earnings. Most of the acquired Northstar assets have been … Continue reading Colony Northstar Merger Math 2+2+2=3