Commercial Mortgage REITs Demonstrated Surprising Resilience in 2020

Posted on by John Sheehy

Average book value return of +1% in 9M20Avoided disorderly portfolio liquidation. Flexibility with borrowers and lenders preserved valueSome bargains remain with 5 CM REITs at discounts of over 20% to 9/30 book valueA longer recession would be a greater challenge to these business models Commercial mortgage REITs have passed through the COVID crisis without large … Continue reading Commercial Mortgage REITs Demonstrated Surprising Resilience in 2020

Colony Credit: Hoping the End Is Near

Posted on by John Sheehy

Colony Credit reported non-disastrous 4Q19 results with $0.37 Core EPS and undepreciated book value of $17.81/share Colony Capital announced that it intends to sell its agreement to manage Colony Credit Colony Credit hired brokers to sell The Row NYC Hotel CEO Kevin Traenkle resigned 4Q19 results (press release and conference call) came with no major … Continue reading Colony Credit: Hoping the End Is Near

5 Demands, Not 1 Less: A Letter To The Independent Directors Of Colony Credit Real Estate

Posted on by John Sheehy

Copied below is the text of my letter to the independent directors of Colony Credit Real Estate.  It advocates for the directors and the corporation to take certain actions.  The text is not intended as investment research. The text expresses my opinions based on publicly available facts, but my opinions are not themselves facts.  For … Continue reading 5 Demands, Not 1 Less: A Letter To The Independent Directors Of Colony Credit Real Estate

Colony Capital Investor Presentation Key Points

Posted on by John Sheehy

Colony Capital participated in the BAML 2019 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE CONFERENCE on 9/11/19.  Any potential CLNY investor should listen to incoming CEO Marc Ganzi's vision for the future of the company.  Management comments went far beyond the contents of the PDF investor presentation.  Paraphrasing key points: Chairman Tom Barrack began by explaining that Northstar was "a … Continue reading Colony Capital Investor Presentation Key Points

Colony Credit On Death Row

Posted on by John Sheehy

Note: Seeking Alpha declined to publish this article in this form because the editor thought it was too provocative.   Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2Q19 GAAP loss of -$111mm and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $36mm ($0.28/share) Share price is at a wide 38% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium … Continue reading Colony Credit On Death Row

Colony Credit Disappointed the Skeptics For a Change

Posted on by John Sheehy

Key points from 1Q19 results (Press Release, Financial Supplement, and Conference Call): Undepreciated Book Value was $21.68 at 3/31/19.  BVPS fell by $0.13 from 12/31, but  the company generated a positive shareholder return with $0.425 of dividend payments. "Core Earnings" of $0.38/share included some small non-recurring benefits.  Management suggested the quarter-end earnings run rate was … Continue reading Colony Credit Disappointed the Skeptics For a Change

Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

Posted on by John Sheehy

Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2018 GAAP loss of $168mm (-$1.41/share) and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $86mm ($0.70/share) Share price has fallen to a wide 28% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium of 19% Management commentary has been consistently overoptimistic Get it right or get out.  If returns don't improve … Continue reading Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

Posted on by John Sheehy

The company remains under-owned and undervalued (31% discount to BVPS compared to average premium of 8% for large cap peers) Earnings expected to cover dividend rate by 2H19 Portfolio return currently below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage Colony Credit Real Estate (CLNC) 3Q results … Continue reading Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Posted on by John Sheehy

Target level of leverage and earnings now expected in 2H19 Asset level performance is satisfactory with unlevered yields in line with expectations Portfolio return below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage The company remains under-owned (held by only 6 ETFs) and undervalued (12% discount to … Continue reading Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Colony Capital Bottom Seekers – How Big Is The Cushion?

Posted on by John Sheehy

Colony Capital has fallen 62% since the January 2017 Northstar merger The stock trades at 8 times forecast 2018 FFO, one of the lowest multiples in the sector Management has made slow progress at simplifying the business Tangible assets are worth about $0.3Bn less than carrying value, Healthcare overvaluation partially offset by Industrial and Hotels … Continue reading Colony Capital Bottom Seekers – How Big Is The Cushion?