Xinyuan Real Estate: Notes on 4Q Results

Highlights from Xinyuan’s recently reported 4Q17 results and Conference Call: China Contract Sales of $802mm, highest ever Only 5 more units sold at the Oosten Project in New York Book Value rose to approximately $15.34/ADS Leverage rose substantially.  Total assets increased by $2.2Bn in 2017 while equity increased by just $0.1Bn.  Landbank increased to 4.9mm sqm in 2017 … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate: Notes on 4Q Results

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Insider Activity at the Best & Worst Performing S&P500 Components

These screens may highlight stocks where there is a mismatch between investor and insider perceptions of valuation and outlook:     Only 4 of the 20 worst performers had net insider buying.   Notably: General Electric Director James Tisch acquired $56mm of shares via Loews Corporation Advanced Auto Parts Chairman Jeffrey Smith acquired $47mm of shares … Continue reading Insider Activity at the Best & Worst Performing S&P500 Components

Long-Term Cash Flow Measure Says US Stocks are Overvalued

Stock prices have been risky when they have grown faster than corporate cash flow (1998-2000, 2007, 2017) and attractive when cash flow has risen faster than stock prices (1994-1997, 2001-2006, 2009-2014). Short-term stock prices trends are largely driven by investor sentiment, but long-term prices correlate with corporate cash flow retained to grow the value of … Continue reading Long-Term Cash Flow Measure Says US Stocks are Overvalued