June 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets until a slight uptick last month in … Continue reading June 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

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Expiration of the China XD Plastics Privatization Consortium Agreement Creates New Opportunities

The Consortium Agreement between China XD's Chairman Jie Han and Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia (MSPEA) appears to have expired in August 2017. Expiration of the agreement means that Chairman Han is no longer bound by its exclusivity provision and is free to negotiate possible alternative transactions with parties other than MSPEA. China XD Plastics … Continue reading Expiration of the China XD Plastics Privatization Consortium Agreement Creates New Opportunities

Xinyuan 2Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 1H18 sales data for the country’s top 200 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #77 with estimated sales of 13.34Bn RMB year-to-date which implies 7.30Bn RMB in 2Q18. CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles … Continue reading Xinyuan 2Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

May 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions have kept prices flat for many months in these key markets: Segregating the 10 strongest and weakest … Continue reading May 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

Recently launched Commercial Mortgage REIT should reach earnings potential of $0.54/quarter by year-end Low institutional ownership will rise as the REIT gets new analyst coverage and is added to indices/ETFs Undervalued at a discount of 20% to NAV compared to average premium of 18% for large cap peers (Starwood, Blackstone, Apollo) Potential total return over … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

April 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions have kept prices flat for many months: Segregating the 10 strongest and weakest of the 70 markets … Continue reading April 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Northstar Realty Europe is delivering an attractive shareholder return from a portfolio of prime assets in strong European markets. Net Asset Value rose 27% since 12/31/16 to $20.50/share at 3/31/18 Property Operating Expense declined from 24% of revenue in 2016 to 20% of revenue in 1Q18 Overhead Expense declined from 6.0% of Net Assets in … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Northstar 1Q18 results (press release and supplement).  A few points: $279mm shares repurchased (average price of $5.79).  I estimate accretion of $0.33 to adjusted equity per share (after removal of Northstar goodwill).  This is bigger than earnings. Industrial and Hospitality results look like they are below the pace of guidance and weaker than peers.  … Continue reading CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?

Colony Northstar shares fell sharply over the past 6 months due to poor operating results and an unclear strategy for improvement 1Q18 earnings are unlikely to hold any surprises.  Healthcare peers have been weak, Industrial and Hospitality have been strong.  "Unallocated" corporate costs are the biggest uncertainty. With little conviction I estimate $0.74/share of FFO … Continue reading Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?