Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Earnings Preview

Guidance is for record high 4Q18 contract sales of US$1,158mm and EPS of about $1/ADS Property Management business is poised for rapid growth "Technology Town" developments could enhance the company's long-term growth and margins Leverage must decrease - XIN bonds are yielding 20% and US$296mm must be repaid/refinanced in August 2019 Land acquisitions may have … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Earnings Preview

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December 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has recently been boosted  … Continue reading December 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 2018 sales data for the country’s top 200 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #82 with estimated full year sales of 29.51Bn RMB which implies 8.01Bn RMB in 4Q18. CRIC does not have access to any official company records and … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

The company remains under-owned and undervalued (31% discount to BVPS compared to average premium of 8% for large cap peers) Earnings expected to cover dividend rate by 2H19 Portfolio return currently below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage Colony Credit Real Estate (CLNC) 3Q results … Continue reading Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

Artis REIT: Trashed Stock With Bargain Price & Strategy That Will Build Value

Artis REIT's recent unit price (around C$9.15) is a 39% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.11/share. Artis trades at 9X 2018 AFFO, well below the 16X average for Canadian REITs and 19X average for US REITs. Artis' new strategic plan has similarities to the path followed by Dream Office which provided a total … Continue reading Artis REIT: Trashed Stock With Bargain Price & Strategy That Will Build Value

November 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has recently been boosted  … Continue reading November 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

October 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has recently been boosted  … Continue reading October 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Xinyuan Real Estate Update: Did you know about the 75Bn RMB investment plan?

Contract sales have been strong - unsold inventory is at a multi-year low Gross margins have been satisfactory - estimated 28% for projects under development 75Bn RMB (>$11Bn) Xinchuang Technology investment plan could transform the company. Leverage must decrease - ratings outlook is negative and XIN bonds are yielding 18% Property Management subsidiary is preparing … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate Update: Did you know about the 75Bn RMB investment plan?

September 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has been boosted  by … Continue reading September 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Xinyuan 3Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 9M18 sales data for the country’s top 100 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #76 with estimated sales of 21.50Bn RMB year-to-date which implies 8.16Bn RMB in 3Q18. CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles … Continue reading Xinyuan 3Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC