Nam Tai Property: Complicated Plots

Nam Tai Property (NTP) has generated a 10 year return of about zero despite consistently bullish online commentary I resisted buying NTP due to flaws in the bullish arguments, but took a fresh look due to recent involvement of an activist shareholder, ISZO Capital. Here's a brief recap of some underappreciated aspects of the story … Continue reading Nam Tai Property: Complicated Plots

SINA Privatization Proxy – It’s An Unfair Deal And There’s Nothing You Can Do About It

Chinese internet holding company SINA released the preliminary proxy statement for its $43.30/share privatization. The price is well below the company's 6/30 asset value of approximately $68/share, but the buyout will certainly be approved because SINA's Chairman Chao controls 61% of the voting rights. The deal process and transaction terms illustrate some risks that investors … Continue reading SINA Privatization Proxy – It’s An Unfair Deal And There’s Nothing You Can Do About It

Artis REIT: Spin Spin Sugar

Artis will spin off its Retail assets to unitholders through a new listed REITArtis will separate its Industrial assets into a wholly owned structure to facilitate a future spinoff or saleArtis attributes $2.55/unit value to the Retail business. The remaining $12.85 of NAV is about $7 for Industrial and $6 for Office.Management accepts that diversification … Continue reading Artis REIT: Spin Spin Sugar

H&R REIT: Keep Calm And Call HR

Unit price has fallen 47% since 2/28, much worse than peers Trading at a 53% discount to its IFRS Net Asset Value (C$21.80) and  8 X 2020 AFFO (C$1.30) which has been temporarily depressed by COVID Diversified business model is unpopular with investors, but heavy COVID impact on retail assets has been balanced by stable … Continue reading H&R REIT: Keep Calm And Call HR

Artis REIT: Not For Sale, But Not Forsaken

Artis 8/10 unit price is a 45% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of C$15.40/unit Artis trades at 6X 2020 FFO, well below the 12X average for all Canadian REITs Artis price has underperformed the sector since 2/28 despite a favorable business mix and strong rent collections The company’s Strategic Review concluded without a transaction, … Continue reading Artis REIT: Not For Sale, But Not Forsaken

Phoenix New Media: China Market Rally Increases Likelihood Of a 2020 Special Dividend

Currently has $3.48/ADS in net Cash + Short-Term Investments August closing of the second stage of the Yidian sale will bring an additional $2.12/ADS A special dividend is likely (possibly similar to the $1.35/ADS paid in 2019) Group Chairman recently purchased shares of Phoenix New Media's parent company Phoenix New Media (FENG) closed the first … Continue reading Phoenix New Media: China Market Rally Increases Likelihood Of a 2020 Special Dividend

Sohu will get $30/share from Sogou and Changyou is worth even more

Sohu will receive $1,179mm in cash ($30/SOHU) from Tencent's privatization of Sogou, their jointly controlled search and AI business (LINK). Sohu's Changyou gaming business could easily demonstrate value of $57/SOHU through a 2021 listing in Hong Kong or China. Sohu's media business (news and video) continues to lose money and along with corporate overhead may … Continue reading Sohu will get $30/share from Sogou and Changyou is worth even more

Mortgage REITs Are Bad Long-Term Investments

The average annualized NAV return since inception for 15 residential mortgage REITs is 3.5% The average annualized NAV return since inception for 10 commercial mortgage REITs is 2.7% Mortgage REITs have complexity, volatility, and high overhead, but many fail to  outperform unlevered bond portfolios. Large discounts may provide opportunities for short-term outperformance New Residential, AGNC, … Continue reading Mortgage REITs Are Bad Long-Term Investments

NYMT: Long

Update 5/27: NYMT released 1Q results on 5/22 so the estimates in this post are no longer relevant.  The company sold all of its first loss positions in Freddie Mac K-Series securitizations so the current portfolio has lower risk and also lower current earnings power than I expected.  Management said it hopes to announce resumption … Continue reading NYMT: Long

Artis REIT: High Rent Collection, Valuable Industrial Assets, And Low Price

Artis 5/12 unit price is a 51% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.52/unit Artis trades at 6X 2020 FFO, well below the 12X average for all Canadian REITs Artis price has underperformed the sector since 2/28 despite an improved business mix and strong rent collections The company's Strategic Review concluded without a transaction, … Continue reading Artis REIT: High Rent Collection, Valuable Industrial Assets, And Low Price