Northstar Realty Europe: Strategic Alternatives Review Deadline Approaching

Northstar Realty Europe is approaching the 6/30 deadline for conclusion of its review Sale or liquidation of the company should deliver $17-18.50 to shareholders High overhead and small scale make it unrealistic for the business to continue in its current form Interests of management and major shareholders are aligned in favor of a transaction Northstar … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe: Strategic Alternatives Review Deadline Approaching

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Colony Credit Disappointed the Skeptics For a Change

Key points from 1Q19 results (Press Release, Financial Supplement, and Conference Call): Undepreciated Book Value was $21.68 at 3/31/19.  BVPS fell by $0.13 from 12/31, but  the company generated a positive shareholder return with $0.425 of dividend payments. "Core Earnings" of $0.38/share included some small non-recurring benefits.  Management suggested the quarter-end earnings run rate was … Continue reading Colony Credit Disappointed the Skeptics For a Change

Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2018 GAAP loss of $168mm (-$1.41/share) and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $86mm ($0.70/share) Share price has fallen to a wide 28% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium of 19% Management commentary has been consistently overoptimistic Get it right or get out.  If returns don't improve … Continue reading Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

The company remains under-owned and undervalued (31% discount to BVPS compared to average premium of 8% for large cap peers) Earnings expected to cover dividend rate by 2H19 Portfolio return currently below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage Colony Credit Real Estate (CLNC) 3Q results … Continue reading Colony Credit: Satisfactory Progress & Bargain Valuation

Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Target level of leverage and earnings now expected in 2H19 Asset level performance is satisfactory with unlevered yields in line with expectations Portfolio return below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage The company remains under-owned (held by only 6 ETFs) and undervalued (12% discount to … Continue reading Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Net Asset Value rose 32% since 12/31/16 to $20.95/share at 6/30/18 Property Operating Expense declined from 24% of revenue in 2016 to 21% of revenue in 1H18 Overhead Expense declined from 6.0% of Net Assets in 2016 to 3.4% of Net Assets in 1H18 Discount to NAV of 37% for NRE compared to an average … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Colony Capital Bottom Seekers – How Big Is The Cushion?

Colony Capital has fallen 62% since the January 2017 Northstar merger The stock trades at 8 times forecast 2018 FFO, one of the lowest multiples in the sector Management has made slow progress at simplifying the business Tangible assets are worth about $0.3Bn less than carrying value, Healthcare overvaluation partially offset by Industrial and Hotels … Continue reading Colony Capital Bottom Seekers – How Big Is The Cushion?

Colony Northstar Delivered a 50% Return. What’s Next?

Colony Northstar (CLNS) management did an admirable job of bringing their 3-way merger to completion.  Northstar Asset Management (NSAM) shareholders have earned a total return over 50% since I wrote last July that shares had potential for a 60% return (LINK).  What next? CLNS has not updated its future guidance since the initial merger presentation … Continue reading Colony Northstar Delivered a 50% Return. What’s Next?

Northstar Realty Europe – Activist Sees Opportunity in Advisor’s Change of Control

, UPDATE May 31 2017: Activist Bow Street Capital sold all of its Northstar Realty Europe shares to Colony Northstar on May 12 (link to SEC filing) and withdrew its acquisition offer. Bow Street LLC has offered to buy Northstar Realty Europe for $13/share (LINK): "We firmly believe that NRE’s true value will never be … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe – Activist Sees Opportunity in Advisor’s Change of Control

No Real Excitement for Northstar Realty Europe

The pending Colony Northstar merger (described in prior articles) did not address the future of Northstar Realty Europe (NRE).  NRE claims to be undervalued for reasons similar to Northstar Realty Finance (NRF) (see NRE presentation): Share price ($9.86 on 10/27) is well below Net Asset Value independently assessed at $16.64 at 6/30/16. Quarterly dividend of … Continue reading No Real Excitement for Northstar Realty Europe