Phoenix New Media: China Market Rally Increases Likelihood Of a 2020 Special Dividend

Currently has $3.48/ADS in net Cash + Short-Term Investments August closing of the second stage of the Yidian sale will bring an additional $2.12/ADS A special dividend is likely (possibly similar to the $1.35/ADS paid in 2019) Group Chairman recently purchased shares of Phoenix New Media's parent company Phoenix New Media (FENG) closed the first … Continue reading Phoenix New Media: China Market Rally Increases Likelihood Of a 2020 Special Dividend

Sohu will get $30/share from Sogou and Changyou is worth even more

Sohu will receive $1,179mm in cash ($30/SOHU) from Tencent's privatization of Sogou, their jointly controlled search and AI business (LINK). Sohu's Changyou gaming business could easily demonstrate value of $57/SOHU through a 2021 listing in Hong Kong or China. Sohu's media business (news and video) continues to lose money and along with corporate overhead may … Continue reading Sohu will get $30/share from Sogou and Changyou is worth even more

Mortgage REITs Are Bad Long-Term Investments

The average annualized NAV return since inception for 15 residential mortgage REITs is 3.5% The average annualized NAV return since inception for 10 commercial mortgage REITs is 2.7% Mortgage REITs have complexity, volatility, and high overhead, but many fail to  outperform unlevered bond portfolios. Large discounts may provide opportunities for short-term outperformance New Residential, AGNC, … Continue reading Mortgage REITs Are Bad Long-Term Investments

NYMT: Long

Update 5/27: NYMT released 1Q results on 5/22 so the estimates in this post are no longer relevant.  The company sold all of its first loss positions in Freddie Mac K-Series securitizations so the current portfolio has lower risk and also lower current earnings power than I expected.  Management said it hopes to announce resumption … Continue reading NYMT: Long

Artis REIT: High Rent Collection, Valuable Industrial Assets, And Low Price

Artis 5/12 unit price is a 51% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.52/unit Artis trades at 6X 2020 FFO, well below the 12X average for all Canadian REITs Artis price has underperformed the sector since 2/28 despite an improved business mix and strong rent collections The company's Strategic Review concluded without a transaction, … Continue reading Artis REIT: High Rent Collection, Valuable Industrial Assets, And Low Price

MITT: Short

I have a small short position in AG Mortgage Investment (MITT) Company Profile 12/31/19 Book Value per share was $17.61 and unlike peers the company did not provide any update showing the impact of the March market crash.  The company held a portfolio allocated 35% to Agency RMBS and 65% to credit sensitive RMBS and … Continue reading MITT: Short

H&R REIT: This Blue Chip Canadian REIT Has Never Been Cheaper

Unit price has fallen 51% since 2/28, much worse than peers Trading at a 60% discount to its IFRS Net Asset Value ($25.79) and  7.3 X 2020 AFFO (C$1.40) estimated prior to the impact of the coronavirus Diversified business model is unpopular with investors, but includes high quality assets that should sustain their value through … Continue reading H&R REIT: This Blue Chip Canadian REIT Has Never Been Cheaper

Artis REIT: Safe and Cheap

Artis units have fallen sharply since my 3/5 article (Artis REIT: Liquidation Sale?).  A financial market crash and an economic recession make it unlikely that the company or significant parts of it can be sold in the near-term, but the strategic initiatives executed over the past year leave Artis well positioned to weather the storm and … Continue reading Artis REIT: Safe and Cheap

Ladder Capital: Well Positioned For A Distressed Market

Ladder is a commercial mortgage REIT with a diversified portfolio designed to preserve capital and flexibility to take advantage of period market disruptions.  A few weeks ago CEO Brian Harris said (4Q19 conference call transcript): Having just raised $750 million a few weeks ago, we have plenty of dry powder and we were deploying it … Continue reading Ladder Capital: Well Positioned For A Distressed Market

Colony Credit: Hoping the End Is Near

Colony Credit reported non-disastrous 4Q19 results with $0.37 Core EPS and undepreciated book value of $17.81/share Colony Capital announced that it intends to sell its agreement to manage Colony Credit Colony Credit hired brokers to sell The Row NYC Hotel CEO Kevin Traenkle resigned 4Q19 results (press release and conference call) came with no major … Continue reading Colony Credit: Hoping the End Is Near