March 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities With Home Price Restrictions

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions have kept prices flat for many months: Segregating the 10 strongest and weakest of the 70 markets … Continue reading March 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities With Home Price Restrictions

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China Automotive Systems $5.45 Buyout Price May Be Fair

Last May China Automotive Systems (CAAS) received a buyout offer of $5.45/share from its Chairman Hanlin Chen The Special Committee of the company's independent directors hired advisors and Morgan Stanley's private equity arm joined the Buyer Group, but there has been no other update. Weaker profitability and an unexpected $40mm tax bill have reduced the … Continue reading China Automotive Systems $5.45 Buyout Price May Be Fair

Xinyuan 1Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 1Q18 sales data for the country’s top 100 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #69 with estimated sales of 6.04Bn RMB year-to-date. CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles its estimates from 3rd party sources … Continue reading Xinyuan 1Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate Might Not Be A Disaster

Several things could go right for Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate (CLNC) in coming months: Release of year-end results and conference call will provide an opportunity for the company to introduce itself to investors. $300mm share repurchase plan can begin after results are out.  At a price of $20/share, the plan could acquire over 18% … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate Might Not Be A Disaster

February 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities With Home Price Restrictions

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 First-tier Cities and Hot Second-tier Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat in 2017: NBS data show that rapid price increases are … Continue reading February 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities With Home Price Restrictions

Colony Northstar Merger Math 2+2+2=3

The merger of Colony Capital, Northstar Realty, and Northstar Asset Management combined 3 companies with a market cap of about $2Bn into one company whose market cap has fallen to $3Bn. Operating performance has fallen far short of expectations and far short of the partners premerger earnings. Most of the acquired Northstar assets have been … Continue reading Colony Northstar Merger Math 2+2+2=3

Colony – A Cry For Help, A Hint of Anesthesia

The market is giving an initial thumbs down to Colony Northstar's 4Q17 results.  A few observations: Book value per share of $12.52 ($6.8Bn common equity, 543mm shares) Tangible book value per share of $8.43 ($6.8Bn common equity, $1.5Bn goodwill, $0.9Bn intangibles, -0.2Bn minority interest intangibles, 543mm shares) $300mm repurchase plan was completed in 4Q so … Continue reading Colony – A Cry For Help, A Hint of Anesthesia

Xinyuan Real Estate: Notes on 4Q Results

Highlights from Xinyuan’s recently reported 4Q17 results and Conference Call: China Contract Sales of $802mm, highest ever Only 5 more units sold at the Oosten Project in New York Book Value rose to approximately $15.34/ADS Leverage rose substantially.  Total assets increased by $2.2Bn in 2017 while equity increased by just $0.1Bn.  Landbank increased to 4.9mm sqm in 2017 … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate: Notes on 4Q Results

Insider Activity at the Best & Worst Performing S&P500 Components

These screens may highlight stocks where there is a mismatch between investor and insider perceptions of valuation and outlook:     Only 4 of the 20 worst performers had net insider buying.   Notably: General Electric Director James Tisch acquired $56mm of shares via Loews Corporation Advanced Auto Parts Chairman Jeffrey Smith acquired $47mm of shares … Continue reading Insider Activity at the Best & Worst Performing S&P500 Components

Long-Term Cash Flow Measure Says US Stocks are Overvalued

Stock prices have been risky when they have grown faster than corporate cash flow (1998-2000, 2007, 2017) and attractive when cash flow has risen faster than stock prices (1994-1997, 2001-2006, 2009-2014). Short-term stock prices trends are largely driven by investor sentiment, but long-term prices correlate with corporate cash flow retained to grow the value of … Continue reading Long-Term Cash Flow Measure Says US Stocks are Overvalued