CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

Colony Northstar 1Q18 results (press release and supplement).  A few points: $279mm shares repurchased (average price of $5.79).  I estimate accretion of $0.33 to adjusted equity per share (after removal of Northstar goodwill).  This is bigger than earnings. Industrial and Hospitality results look like they are below the pace of guidance and weaker than peers.  … Continue reading CLNS 1Q18 Initial Reaction

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Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?

Colony Northstar shares fell sharply over the past 6 months due to poor operating results and an unclear strategy for improvement 1Q18 earnings are unlikely to hold any surprises.  Healthcare peers have been weak, Industrial and Hospitality have been strong.  "Unallocated" corporate costs are the biggest uncertainty. With little conviction I estimate $0.74/share of FFO … Continue reading Colony Collapse Disorder: Will CLNS 1Q Results Provide A Cure?

China XD Plastics 2017 Review & It’s time to give up on the unfair buyout offer

Specialty chemicals producer China XD Plastics delivered strong operating performance in 2017 with volume +14% and net income +0% in line with guidance The company remains over 80% cheaper than comparable China-listed companies Rapid capacity expansion is on track to serve growing end markets (bio-plastics and 3D printing materials) US Tax changes imposed an unexpected … Continue reading China XD Plastics 2017 Review & It’s time to give up on the unfair buyout offer

China Automotive Systems New Joint Venture Steers The Company In The Right Direction

China Automotive Systems (CAAS) disclosed via 8-k filing that it would contribute its existing Electronic Power Steering (EPS) business to a newly formed Joint Venture with KYB Corporation, a major Japanese producer of auto parts. CAAS has not issued a press release or made any public comments about the transaction.  KYB provided this explanation: Key … Continue reading China Automotive Systems New Joint Venture Steers The Company In The Right Direction

What’s next after the Changyou dividend and Sohu liquidation?

Changyou's recently distributed special dividend and Sohu's pending liquidation may be intended to facilitate a new buyout offer for Changyou.  Fair value for a transaction should be at least $29.74/ADS. Some additional background was in my prior articles: Changyou’s Buyout Price Should be Raised to at least $53  Sohu Valuation enhanced by successful Sogou IPO and … Continue reading What’s next after the Changyou dividend and Sohu liquidation?

Xinyuan Science & Technology Service (NEEQ:870929) Outstanding 2017 Results

Xinyuan Science & Technology Service (XSTS), the property management subsidiary of Xinyuan Real Estate, filed its 2017 Annual Report (LINK).  Even though XSTS shares are not yet trading publicly, the NEEQ listing provides visibility into the rapid growth in Xinyuan's recurring revenues and income from this business.  Highlights: The company’s NEEQ listing was approved on … Continue reading Xinyuan Science & Technology Service (NEEQ:870929) Outstanding 2017 Results

March 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities With Home Price Restrictions

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions have kept prices flat for many months: Segregating the 10 strongest and weakest of the 70 markets … Continue reading March 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities With Home Price Restrictions

China Automotive Systems $5.45 Buyout Price May Be Fair

Last May China Automotive Systems (CAAS) received a buyout offer of $5.45/share from its Chairman Hanlin Chen The Special Committee of the company's independent directors hired advisors and Morgan Stanley's private equity arm joined the Buyer Group, but there has been no other update. Weaker profitability and an unexpected $40mm tax bill have reduced the … Continue reading China Automotive Systems $5.45 Buyout Price May Be Fair

Xinyuan 1Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 1Q18 sales data for the country’s top 100 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #69 with estimated sales of 6.04Bn RMB year-to-date. CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles its estimates from 3rd party sources … Continue reading Xinyuan 1Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate Might Not Be A Disaster

Several things could go right for Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate (CLNC) in coming months: Release of year-end results and conference call will provide an opportunity for the company to introduce itself to investors. $300mm share repurchase plan can begin after results are out.  At a price of $20/share, the plan could acquire over 18% … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate Might Not Be A Disaster