Artis REIT: Trashed Stock With Bargain Price & Strategy That Will Build Value

Artis REIT's recent unit price (around C$9.15) is a 39% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.11/share. Artis trades at 9X 2018 AFFO, well below the 16X average for Canadian REITs and 19X average for US REITs. Artis' new strategic plan has similarities to the path followed by Dream Office which provided a total … Continue reading Artis REIT: Trashed Stock With Bargain Price & Strategy That Will Build Value

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November 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has recently been boosted  … Continue reading November 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

October 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has recently been boosted  … Continue reading October 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Xinyuan Real Estate Update: Did you know about the 75Bn RMB investment plan?

Contract sales have been strong - unsold inventory is at a multi-year low Gross margins have been satisfactory - estimated 28% for projects under development 75Bn RMB (>$11Bn) Xinchuang Technology investment plan could transform the company. Leverage must decrease - ratings outlook is negative and XIN bonds are yielding 18% Property Management subsidiary is preparing … Continue reading Xinyuan Real Estate Update: Did you know about the 75Bn RMB investment plan?

September 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has been boosted  by … Continue reading September 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Xinyuan 3Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 9M18 sales data for the country’s top 100 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #76 with estimated sales of 21.50Bn RMB year-to-date which implies 8.16Bn RMB in 3Q18. CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles … Continue reading Xinyuan 3Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

Three China Real Estate Bargains

China real estate developers have fallen far from their 52-week highs (LINK). Home prices in some major cities closely monitored by the government have begun rising and suggest an informal relaxation of housing market restrictions (LINK). Looser fiscal and monetary policy is boosting domestic consumption to offset the economic and psychological impact of US trade … Continue reading Three China Real Estate Bargains

August 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy: Intense market restrictions kept prices flat for many months in these key markets, but the average has been boosted  by … Continue reading August 2018 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China Real Estate Companies are Cheap

The bear came back with a gift of cheap equities.  After rising 102% in 2017 the MSCI China Real Estate index fell 5.6% in 8M18.  The largest 43 China real estate companies traded in Hong Kong (plus Xinyuan in NY) are down an average of 38% from one year highs and trading at 5.7 times … Continue reading China Real Estate Companies are Cheap

Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets

Target level of leverage and earnings now expected in 2H19 Asset level performance is satisfactory with unlevered yields in line with expectations Portfolio return below peers due to lower yielding non core assets (real estate and Private equity) and low leverage The company remains under-owned (held by only 6 ETFs) and undervalued (12% discount to … Continue reading Colony Credit Needs More Time To Reach Targets