Phoenix New Media: Special Dividend, Strong Asset Value, Strong Brand, Weak Profitability

Phoenix New Media (6/6 closing price = $3.45) is selling a majority of its strategic investment in Yidian Zixun for estimated net cash proceeds of US$409mm ($5.62/ADS). The company expects to pay a special dividend of 15-25% of proceeds ($0.84-$1.40/ADS) The company will retain net cash + ST/LT investments after the dividend of $552-$593mm ($7.56-8.12/ADS) … Continue reading Phoenix New Media: Special Dividend, Strong Asset Value, Strong Brand, Weak Profitability

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Trade Peace, When The Time Is Right

Daily discussion of trade war tactics has obscured the objectives that could be realized from an agreement.  I believe a mutually beneficial outcome is possible, but political pressures could make it more difficult to conclude a deal. This review is not intended as a forecast, but a summary of issues and related risks that provides … Continue reading Trade Peace, When The Time Is Right

April 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK - only published in Chinese this month).  The prior segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report has been removed and suggests that price restraints have diminished in importance as a policy goal.  It is still useful to monitor trends … Continue reading April 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Artis REIT: Delivering Value Faster Than Expected

Artis 5/10 unit price is a 28% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.55/unit Artis trades at 8.5 X 2019 FFO, well below the 14X average for Canadian REITs and 19X average for US REITs The strategic initiatives announced in November 2018 have been aggressively implemented and a new Special Committee will consider further … Continue reading Artis REIT: Delivering Value Faster Than Expected

Colony Credit Disappointed the Skeptics For a Change

Key points from 1Q19 results (Press Release, Financial Supplement, and Conference Call): Undepreciated Book Value was $21.68 at 3/31/19.  BVPS fell by $0.13 from 12/31, but  the company generated a positive shareholder return with $0.425 of dividend payments. "Core Earnings" of $0.38/share included some small non-recurring benefits.  Management suggested the quarter-end earnings run rate was … Continue reading Colony Credit Disappointed the Skeptics For a Change

March 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The prior segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report has been removed and suggests that price restraints have diminished in importance as a policy goal.  It is still useful to monitor trends in these major markets. Intense market restrictions … Continue reading March 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Sohu 20-F Reveals $144mm Tax Benefit

Sohu's 20-F revealed that the company no longer believes it will owe any special one-time tax in connection with the 2017 US Tax Reform.  If correct then this will free up $144mm of cash (about $3.69/ADS) for general corporate purposes. Investors in Changyou and Sohu are frustrated by the lack of information about the status … Continue reading Sohu 20-F Reveals $144mm Tax Benefit

February 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The prior segregation of “15 Hot Cities” in the NBS report has been removed and suggests that price restraints have diminished in importance as a policy goal.  It is still useful to monitor trends in these major markets. Intense market restrictions … Continue reading February 2019 NBS Price Data in Leading Chinese Cities

Artis REIT: Building Value That Will Eventually be Unlocked

Artis 3/15 unit price is a 31% discount to IFRS Net Asset Value of $15.55 per share Artis trades at 8X 2019 FFO, well below the 14X average for Canadian REITs and 19X average for US REITs The strategic initiatives announced in November 2018 have been aggressively implemented Shares may not trade at fair value … Continue reading Artis REIT: Building Value That Will Eventually be Unlocked

Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out

Colony Credit delivered a disappointing 2018 GAAP loss of $168mm (-$1.41/share) and non-GAAP "Core Earnings" of $86mm ($0.70/share) Share price has fallen to a wide 28% discount to book value while peers trade at an average premium of 19% Management commentary has been consistently overoptimistic Get it right or get out.  If returns don't improve … Continue reading Colony Credit: Management Should Get It Right in 2019 Or Get Out