Northstar Realty Europe: Strategic Alternatives Review Deadline Approaching

Northstar Realty Europe is approaching the 6/30 deadline for conclusion of its review Sale or liquidation of the company should deliver $17-18.50 to shareholders High overhead and small scale make it unrealistic for the business to continue in its current form Interests of management and major shareholders are aligned in favor of a transaction Northstar … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe: Strategic Alternatives Review Deadline Approaching

Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Net Asset Value rose 32% since 12/31/16 to $20.95/share at 6/30/18 Property Operating Expense declined from 24% of revenue in 2016 to 21% of revenue in 1H18 Overhead Expense declined from 6.0% of Net Assets in 2016 to 3.4% of Net Assets in 1H18 Discount to NAV of 37% for NRE compared to an average … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

Recently launched Commercial Mortgage REIT should reach earnings potential of $0.54/quarter by year-end Low institutional ownership will rise as the REIT gets new analyst coverage and is added to indices/ETFs Undervalued at a discount of 20% to NAV compared to average premium of 18% for large cap peers (Starwood, Blackstone, Apollo) Potential total return over … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit: Underowned & Undervalued

Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Northstar Realty Europe is delivering an attractive shareholder return from a portfolio of prime assets in strong European markets. Net Asset Value rose 27% since 12/31/16 to $20.50/share at 3/31/18 Property Operating Expense declined from 24% of revenue in 2016 to 20% of revenue in 1Q18 Overhead Expense declined from 6.0% of Net Assets in … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe: Rising Asset Value and Falling Expenses

Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate Might Not Be A Disaster

Several things could go right for Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate (CLNC) in coming months: Release of year-end results and conference call will provide an opportunity for the company to introduce itself to investors. $300mm share repurchase plan can begin after results are out.  At a price of $20/share, the plan could acquire over 18% … Continue reading Colony Northstar Credit Real Estate Might Not Be A Disaster

Colony Northstar Merger Math 2+2+2=3

The merger of Colony Capital, Northstar Realty, and Northstar Asset Management combined 3 companies with a market cap of about $2Bn into one company whose market cap has fallen to $3Bn. Operating performance has fallen far short of expectations and far short of the partners premerger earnings. Most of the acquired Northstar assets have been … Continue reading Colony Northstar Merger Math 2+2+2=3

Colony Northstar May Have Been Pushed Lower By Selling From ex-Northstar Executives

Colony Northstar shares have fallen sharply in recent weeks (-18% YTD).  I believe the selling pressure comes from ex-Northstar executives.  The existing share buyback plan was largely completed by November and had little remaining capacity to take advantage of the falling price. In conjunction with the merger Northstar executives negotiated the following equity grants to … Continue reading Colony Northstar May Have Been Pushed Lower By Selling From ex-Northstar Executives

Colony Northstar Is Becoming Simpler And More Valuable

Near-term earnings are a bit weaker than expected and it will take years to realize the expected benefits of the merger The stock trades at one of the lowest valuations in the sector because the balance sheet and income statement remain difficult to analyze The market may have overlooked the benefits of the recently announced … Continue reading Colony Northstar Is Becoming Simpler And More Valuable

Colony Northstar Delivered a 50% Return. What’s Next?

Colony Northstar (CLNS) management did an admirable job of bringing their 3-way merger to completion.  Northstar Asset Management (NSAM) shareholders have earned a total return over 50% since I wrote last July that shares had potential for a 60% return (LINK).  What next? CLNS has not updated its future guidance since the initial merger presentation … Continue reading Colony Northstar Delivered a 50% Return. What’s Next?

Northstar Realty Europe – Activist Sees Opportunity in Advisor’s Change of Control

, UPDATE May 31 2017: Activist Bow Street Capital sold all of its Northstar Realty Europe shares to Colony Northstar on May 12 (link to SEC filing) and withdrew its acquisition offer. Bow Street LLC has offered to buy Northstar Realty Europe for $13/share (LINK): “We firmly believe that NRE’s true value will never be … Continue reading Northstar Realty Europe – Activist Sees Opportunity in Advisor’s Change of Control