Xinyuan Real Estate 4Q18 Contract Sales Estimate from CRIC

China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 2018 sales data for the country’s top 200 property developers (LINK).  Xinyuan China is shown at #82 with estimated full year sales of 29.51Bn RMB which implies 8.01Bn RMB in 4Q18.

XIN Contract Sales CRIC 4q18

CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles its estimates from 3rd party sources like municipal data.  “Sales” estimated by CRIC are never going to equal “contract sales” reported under US GAAP financial statements and “contract sales” are also different from “revenues” reported by Xinyuan under ASC 606.  Some of the sales in the CRIC data do not end up being closed and some are recognized in later periods (Xinyuan does not book a “contract sale” until it has received 30% of the price in cash).  Despite these limitations, CRIC data has usually been a good indication of the trend in Xinyuan results in the past.

XIN Contract Sales by Quarter 4Q18

This week’s CRIC estimate is close to the guidance Xinyuan provided in November for 4Q contract sales of “approximately $1.158mm” which would be equivalent to about 8.0Bn RMB.

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