China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 9M18 sales data for the country’s top 100 property developers (LINK). Xinyuan China is shown at #76 with estimated sales of 21.50Bn RMB year-to-date which implies 8.16Bn RMB in 3Q18.
CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles its estimates from 3rd party sources like municipal data. “Sales” estimated by CRIC are never going to equal “contract sales” reported under US GAAP financial statements and “contract sales” are also different from “revenues” reported by Xinyuan under ASC 606. Some of the sales in the CRIC data do not end up being closed and some are recognized in later periods (Xinyuan does not book a “contract sale” until it has received 30% of the price in cash). Despite these limitations, CRIC data has usually been a good indication of the trend in Xinyuan results in the past.
This week’s CRIC estimate is far above the guidance Xinyuan provided in August for 3Q contract sales of “around 540 million” which would be equivalent to about 3.7Bn RMB. Actual results came in 25% above guidance in 1Q18 and 20% above guidance in 2Q18. The CRIC 3Q18 estimate is a quarterly record high for the company.