February NBS Price Data in Chinese Cities With Home Price Restrictions

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its monthly report on home sale prices (LINK).  The report provides less coverage and less detail than the private Fang/Soufun 100 city index whose release has been suspended.  Increased government control over price data seems to be an intangible measure to cool speculation.

The NBS report still provides some insight into the impact of housing market restrictions introduced in leading Chinese cities.  Curbs have been applied in at least 25 cities.  There is no official list, but the segregation of “15 First-tier Cities and Hot Second-tier Cities” in the NBS report implies that they will be the primary focus of government policy:

China HPR Markets Feb 2017 NBS

Under the present circumstances lower prices are good news because they mean it will not be too long before restrictions are eased and successful property developers can return to a normal operating environment.  Cities where upward price pressure remains strong may introduce additional market restrictions (see SCMP: Guangzhou, four cities follow Beijing’s lead to curb home purchases).  By July the 1 year price change in most of these cities will probably be under 10% and policy relaxation may begin.

For longer time perspective on China real estate see China Property: Hot or Not?

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