China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC – a subsidiary of E-House) released estimated 1H16 sales data for the country’s top 100 property developers (LINK). Xinyuan China is shown at #79 with estimated sales of 7.95Bn RMB.
CRIC does not have access to any official company records and compiles its estimates from 3rd party sources like municipal data. “Sales” estimated by CRIC are never going to equal “contract sales” reported under US GAAP financial statements. Some of the sales in the CRIC data do not end up being closed and some are recognized in later periods (Xinyuan does not book a “contract sale” until it has received 30% of the price in cash). Even though the numbers don’t match, CRIC data in prior quarters has been a good indication of the trend in Xinyuan results:
Estimated year to date sales are 56% ahead of 2015 and far ahead of company guidance for a 15-20% full year increase. Overall market conditions in China were very weak in 2015 until May when the government began easing monetary policy and loosening housing market restrictions. Xinyuan and other developers in strong markets may report good results in the second half, but the rate of growth vs 2015 is likely to fall.