Many pending buyouts progressed towards completion despite recent equity market volatility. Since my last update:
- Mindray closed
- Global-Tech Advanced closed
- Homeinns closed
- Jiayuan has been approved and expects to close this month
- Xueda has been approved and expects to close this quarter
- DangDang received a competing bid at a higher price
New buyout offers:
- Sinovac received a management offer and a competing offer
- Kutv received an offer and already signed a definitive agreement
- Jumei
Volatility in domestic Chinese stock markets could delay or disrupt completion of pending buyouts. The CSI 300 market cap weighted index of the 300 largest Shanghai/Shenzhen listed stocks dropped 24% from year-end to its March low and then rebounded 16%:
The highly speculative Chinext index fell 30% from its December high and then rebounded 20%:
It’s encouraging that the recent market stabilization occurred without heavy-handed government led intervention, but implementation of long-term reforms has been postponed and there is no clear path to allow dual-listing of Chinese companies currently trading in New York. This may encourage continuation of buyouts that ultimately lead to a relisting on a domestic exchange.
Concerns over capital outflows from China could complicate the completion of some buyouts if onshore RMB funding needs to be converted to USD. Foreign exchange regulations have not changed, but they may be more strictly enforced and bolstered with informal guidance to major financial institutions.
Balancing these factors, a majority of the currently pending deals are likely to close:
Koneko Research 